Preview #10 of 30: New York Mets

Something about the 2006 Mets must have been disappointing.  You know, going 97-65, best record in the National League, finally breaking the Braves' stranglehold on the East.  But the flameout in the playoffs has left Mets fans with a sour taste in their mouths this offseason.  Losing Pedro Martinez hurt, as the Mets' already shaky rotation was weakened even further down the stretch.  Pedro's still hurt, and he won't even begin throwing until March, so the chances of him starting the season are nil.

The Mets made relatively few changes this offseason -- why mess with success? -- and while that's asking for trouble with the starting rotation, it's an undeniably good thing for the offense, which can carry the team through Pedro's absence.  The only change came in left field, where Moises Alou replaces Cliff Floyd.  Otherwise, it's the same old Mets offense that finished third in the NL in runs, fourth in homers, eighth in BA last season.  While many of the Mets (Carlos Delgado, Shawn Green, Alou, Jose Valentin, Paul Lo Duca) are on the downswing of their careers, Delgado is still highly productive and Alou is when healthy.  Green is no longer a 40-homer guy (not even close), but the Mets do have Lastings Milledge waiting in the wings.  Ben Johnson also makes for nice insurance if somebody gets hurt in the outfield.

Then there's Carlos Beltran, who many called a bust after his first season with the Mets, but who changed his fortunes in year two to the tune of 41 homers.  David Wright and Jose Reyes are the counter to the Phillies' right side of the infield, forming the best left side in the National League.  Beltran and Wright, along with Delgado, are good bets to top the 30-homer mark.  The offense is still extremely dangerous.

The pitching, though -- particularly without Pedro -- doesn't scare anybody.  Tom Glavine is still effective, but he'll also be 41 on Opening Day, and he just can't go on forever, can he?  Orlando Hernandez, the #2 starter in Pedro's absence, is probably in his 40s as well, though he insists he's 37.  25-year-old John Maine was solid last season and should be a nice #3.  After that, there's Oliver Perez.  Perez looked like the real deal a couple of years ago, then got so bad that the Pirates gave up on him and traded him to the Mets.  Now he's trying to recover the pieces of his career, but there's still hope.  After all, he's only 25, and despite the problems he's still averaged better than a strikeout per inning for his career.  The fifth spot will probably be manned by top prospect Mike Pelfrey.  It's a decent rotation, but not one I'd want if I have serious dreams of winning a World Series.

The flipside is that the bullpen was one of the best in baseball last season, and with that offense behind them it's not as though the Mets pitchers need to throw shutout ball every time out.  Other than submariner Chad Bradford, the key cogs in last year's bullpen -- Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, and Duaner Sanchez -- are back.  The bad news?  Well, relievers' performances often vary widely from year-to-year, so it's not a given that the 'pen will be great again.  Plus, if anybody in the rotation is injured (a real possibility when your rotation has two 40-year-olds and a guy who's had arm problems in the past), Heilman, one of the Mets' most dependable relievers, will probably be the first guy to be called into the rotation.

The Mets do have some talent down on the farm, and quite a few of them are MLB-ready (including Pelfrey.)  Of course, considering how Victor Zambrano turned out, Mets fans have got to be wondering what management was thinking when they traded Scott Kazmir.

Projected 2007 Finish: 1st, NL East

Projected Starting Lineup

Reyes ss
Lo Duca c
Beltran cf
Delgado 1b
Wright 3b
Alou lf
Green rf
Valentin 2b

Projected Starting Rotation

Tom Glavine (L)
Orlando Hernandez
John Maine
Oliver Perez (L)
Mike Pelfrey

The season will be a success if... The Mets win the World Series.  No, this isn't the Yankees, but after the way last season ended -- and with most of the team returning intact -- Mets fans won't be satisfied with anything less than a championship.

Projected 2007 record: 95-67