Preview #11 of 30: Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays, coming off arguably their best season since 1993, have the pieces in place to make a serious run at the playoffs.  Of course, we said that last season, but things didn't really come together for the Jays.  They did wind up at 87-75, their best finish since 1998, and finished second in the AL East, beating the Red Sox by one game.  That marked the first time since 1993 that the Jays have finished better than third place.

The clear strength of this team is the offense.  The Jays were third in the AL in batting average, fourth in OBP, second in slugging, fourth in homers.  Somehow, though, that only translated to seventh in the AL in runs.  The Jays obviously need to do a better job of getting those baserunners home -- once again, strange considering the utter amount of power in this lineup.  There were several roster changes in the offseason, but mostly for the better.  Royce Clayton comes in to play short -- normally, that would be a negative, but last year's shortstops were John McDonald and Russ Adams, who respectively batted .223 and .219.  Frank Catalanotto is out, leaving the left field job to Reed Johnson -- who hit .319 last season -- on a full-time basis.  Johnson, though, will be pushed by Adam Lind, who had a combined .330/.394/.556 line at AA and AAA last season, including 24 homers.  If Lind wins the starting job and is anywhere near as good as his minor league performance suggests he could be, this lineup will be very dangerous.

Finally, clubhouse cancer Shea Hillenbrand is gone, future Hall of Famer Frank Thomas is in.  Thomas was widely assumed to be done before 2006 -- then he hit 39 homers to go with the usual great OBP and parlayed that into a big contract with the Jays in the offseason.  The Big Hurt is just 13 homers away from 500, which should motivate him this season (and since as far as I know there's never been so much as a whisper about Frank being on steroids, he's virtually a guaranteed Hall of Famer if he gets there.)

The one possible negative to this offense is that Bengie Molina is gone after one season in Toronto, but it's probably also unreasonable to expect Molina to repeat 2006.  Gregg Zaun will likely get the bulk of the starts at catcher.

Of course, the real meat of the lineup -- Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay, and Alex Rios -- are all still in town, and that's a great thing for the Jays.  The Jays locked up Wells to a long-term deal in the offseason, ensuring that he'll be north of the border for the next few years.  Glaus still has power, though he doesn't hit for a great average.  Overbay hits for a good average and also contributed 22 homers in '06.  Rios was the breakout guy in '06, posting a nice line of .302/.349/.516 -- though it would be nice of him to take a walk once in a while.

With that lineup, you'd think the Jays would be a legit World Series team, but the pitching is holding them back.  None of that is Roy Halladay's fault, as he posted Cy-worthy numbers in '06 (16-5, 3.19 ERA.)  A.J. Burnett, on the other hand, was mostly a bust in his first season in Toronto, missing a good chunk of the season due to injuries and not being the pitcher Toronto paid for when he was healthy.  After that, things get very shaky.  Among the players who started ten games or more for Toronto last season, Ted Lilly was the only one who had an ERA under 5, and he's out of town.  Gustavo Chacin somehow managed a 9-4 record despite a 5.04 ERA (okay, with that offense behind him...), while Casey Janssen and Shawn Marcum were similarly ineffective.  The Jays are still waiting for Dustin McGowan to contribute at the major league level, and Josh Towers (no longer with the team) was genuinely awful last season.  Massive (6'6", 250) 24-year-old Ty Taubenheim showed something last season but needs more polish.  Finally, the Jays shored up the rotation a bit by signing John Thomson -- but will he be effective after spending much of 2006 on the shelf.

The bullpen, anchored by B.J. Ryan, is decent, but will be hurting from the loss of prime setup man Justin Speier.  Aside from Ryan, the bullpen is nothing special, but it needs to be effective in getting the ball to Ryan in the late innings == especially considering that other than Halladay, the Jays' starters generally don't go deep into ballgames, and Burnett and Thomson were injured last season.

The gist?  The Jays' offense will be great, but if they're going to challenge the Yankees for supremacy in the East, the pitching will need to be better.  A lot better.

Projected 2007 finish: 3rd, AL East

Projected Starting Lineup

Johnson lf
Rios rf
Wells cf
Overbay 1b
Glaus 3b
Thomas dh
Hill 2b
Clayton ss
Zaun c

Projected Starting Rotation

Roy Halladay
A.J. Burnett
Gustavo Chacin (L)
John Thomson
Shaun Marcum

The season will be a success if... The Blue Jays make the playoffs.  There's enough promise here that making the postseason is a reasonable goal.

Projected 2007 record: 86-76