Preview #14 of 30: Pittsburgh Pirates

Call it the Curse of Barry.

With Barry Bonds, the Pirates won three straight division titles from 1990-92 (though they never made it out of the NLCS.)  But Bonds departed for San Francisco after the 1992 season, and the Pirates haven't been back to the playoffs since.  They haven't had a winning record, and the team has slid into the residence of the Royals, Devil Rays, and other teams commonly fighting for the title of "worst team in baseball."  (Then again, Barry hasn't won a World Series since then, either, so maybe he's the one who is cursed.)

It wasn't always this way.  The Pirates have five World Championships -- more than any National League team but the Cardinals and Dodgers -- and, prior to the run of three straight division titles in the early 1990s, they had won an amazing six division titles in the 1970s, winning the World Series twice.  They have a great ballpark and a fanbase that will support a winner (see the Steelers), yet the team has been mired in futility over the last few years.  Sure, Pittsburgh is one of the smallest markets in the majors, but playing in a small market doesn't explain the boneheaded decisions management has made in recent years.  In the 2002 draft, a draft that saw B.J. Upton, Prince Fielder, Jeff Francis, Jeremy Hermida, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Francoeur, and Matt Cain selected in the first round, the Pirates went with Bryan Bullington with the #1 overall pick.  I know, the draft is a crapshoot, but even then few people thought Bullington was worthy of such a high selection, and the Pirates admitted that he was probably just a middle-of-the-rotation type and were drafting him because he was "signable."  Bullington has pitched 1.1 innings in the majors to this date.  The Pirates also reportedly turned down the Phillies' offer of Ryan Howard for Kris Benson a couple of years ago (an offer I'm sure the Phillies are glad was turned down), instead getting a couple of guys who couldn't carry Howard's jockstrap.

The most recent bad move?  That would be acquiring Adam LaRoche from the Braves.  Not that LaRoche is a bad player -- he did hit 32 homers last season -- but first basemen who can hit are not difficult to find.  Giving up a legit closer in Mike Gonzalez and a good middle infield prospect, Brent Lillibridge, is a pretty steep price for a league-average first baseman.  Yes, LaRoche is young and is an improvement over Xavier Nady -- who only gets moved to the outfield instead of the bench -- but seriously, the Pirates couldn't find a decent first baseman somewhere in their farm system?

Still, if LaRoche duplicates (or improves) his 2006 performance, the Pirates will have a nice lefty-righty combo in the middle of the order with him and Jason Bay.  Third baseman Freddy Sanchez surprised just about everybody by winning the NL batting title last year, and Jack Wilson is a good gloveman and decent hitter at short.  Nady will play in right field and provide some pop with a decent average.  Chris Duffy in center is young and struggled at the plate last year, but there's some room for improvement.  Second baseman Jose Castillo hit 14 homers but also had a weak .299 OBP in '06.  At catcher, the Pirates have the option of "good average/no power" (Ronny Paulino) or "decent power/awful average" (Ryan Doumit.)  My guess is they'll have some sort of platoon.  Doumit is a switch-hitter, which gives him something of an edge, and since catchers' BAs vary so much from year-to-year I'd rather have the guy with power if given the choice.

The pitching is boom or bust.  Finesse lefties -- Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, and Tom Gorzelanny -- will probably comprise three-fifths of the rotation, along with strikeout artist Ian Snell and Shawn Chacon, who has made the Rockies' decision to trade him look good by being genuinely awful since leaving Colorado (that, and the fact that Ramon Ramirez has turned out well.)  There are plenty of problems with this rotation.  Duke, after being brilliant down the stretch in 2005, took a step back last season and was entirely too hittable.  Snell is prone to giving up the gopher ball, though he somehow won 14 games with a 4.74 ERA and the Pirates' offense behind him.  Maholm is also very hittable and walks too many batters.  Gorzelanny likewise gives up a lot of free passes.  And Chacon was pretty bad for the Pirates last season after pitching himself out of New York.

The bullpen is hurt by the loss of Gonzalez.  Now, the Pirates are looking at using Salomon Torres as the closer.  Matt Capps was strong in middle relief last season, while Damaso Marte struggled but is still a good lefty specialist.

The Pirates avoided the cellar by one game in 2006, but with the Cubs looking improved, that probably won't happen again.  Instead, they'll battle the Reds to stay out of the cellar.

Projected 2007 finish: 6th, NL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Duffy cf
Wilson ss
Sanchez 3b
Bay lf
LaRoche 1b
Nady rf
Castillo 2b
Doumit/Paulino c

Projected Starting Rotation

Zach Duke (L)
Ian Snell
Paul Maholm (L)
Shawn Chacon
Tom Gorzelanny (L)

The season will be a success if... The youngsters show some improvement.  While a winning season would be nice, that's asking a bit much of this team; merely avoiding last place again would be good.

Projected 2007 record: 67-95