Preview #15 of 30: Minnesota Twins

Never write off the Twins.

That's something I did around the middle of last season (and I'm not alone in doing that.)  Then the Twins came back, putting together an excellent second half to win their fourth division title in five years, beating the Tigers by one game (after the Tigers had led the division all year!)  Of course, the Twins got swept out of the playoffs by the A's, but it didn't quite ruin what had been a great season.

And now?  Well, Francisco Liriano, who was brilliant down the stretch last season but missed the playoffs -- likely contributing to the series loss -- is out for the season.  That's not good.  With Liriano out, the Twins have Boof Bonser penciled in as their #2 starter.  Can a team realistically dream of making the playoffs when Boof Bonser is the #2?  Sure, when Johan Santana is #1.  Numbers don't even begin to describe how dominant Santana is, but last season, he went 19-6 with a 2.77 ERA.  Over the last three years, he's 55-19, with an ERA under 3 each time.  Even more amazingly, the Twins were 27-7 when Santana started (including a stretch from late May to early September when they were 21-1!)  There's no such thing as an automatic W in baseball, but Santana's starts are the closest thing to it.

The rotation tails off, though, after Santana.  With Liriano out and Brad Radke having retired, that leaves the Twins with Bonser, Carlos Silva, Matt Garza, and Scott Baker behind Santana.  Garza and Baker both have a lot of potential, but neither one showed much in the majors last year -- though to be fair, in Garza's case he started the year at A-ball.  Silva gets by with average stuff by having great control -- but also little margin for error.  In 2006, he went 11-15 and his ERA spiked to 5.94, by far the highest of his career.  Still, if Silva is back to form in 2007, and Garza, Baker, and Bonser all pitch to their potential, this could be a good rotation.  On the other hand, this also has the potential to be a problem.  Closer Joe Nathan is one of the best in the business and should preserve plenty of wins for the starters.

The Twins' lineup has power -- Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter clubbed 30 homers apiece last year -- and also has some good contact hitters, including AL batting champ Joe Mauer.  The infield -- with Morneau, Luis Castillo, Jason Bartlett, and Nick Punto -- won't be bad, and the Twins will likely plug Rondell White or Jason Kubel in left field, with the other serving as DH.

On paper, the Twins look like a third-place team in the loaded AL Central.  But it's probably not a good idea to write them off.

Projected 2007 finish: 3rd, AL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Castillo 2b
Punto 3b
Mauer c
Morneau 1b
Hunter cf
Cuddyer rf
Kubel lf
White dh
Bartlett ss

Projected Starting Rotation

Johan Santana (L)
Boof Bonser
Carlos Silva
Matt Garza
Scott Baker

The season will be a success if... The Twins make the playoffs.

Projected 2007 record: 85-77