Preview #16 of 30: Houston Astros

The Astros aren't often talked about as a large-market team.  But in terms of size, Houston is the fourth-largest city in the country.  In terms of baseball, the Astros have had plenty of recent success, though the club historically hasn't been that great.  Yet the Astros seem to fall somewhere below the "large market" teams like the Yankees and Red Sox in terms of fan support and expectations.  It's hard to think of the Astros as a team with rabid fan support (though I'm sure it's there) -- Texas is a football state, after all.  And the team doesn't seem to have the expectations of the big-market teams.

All of that explains, perhaps, why the Astros' 82-80 season last year wasn't viewed widely as a great disappointment.  The fans, while appreciative of the team, don't seem to expect a World Championship every year -- in fact, the team has never won a championship, and 2005 was their first appearance in the World Series.  And that may be a good thing, as 2007 doesn't look like a championship year for the Astros.  Oh, sure, the Astros could make the playoffs simply because the NL Central is so bad (though for some reason it hasn't replaced the West as the division that baseball writers love to pick on.)  But to expect the team to make the World Series?  I don't know about that.

The losses from last year's team aren't terrible.  Andy Pettitte is gone, back to New York -- but then he wasn't terrific last season when he posted a 14-13 record and a 4.20 ERA.  That's not awful, but Jason Jennings, acquired in a trade with the Rockies, should be able to do that.  Roger Clemens, who was terrific last year, is likely gone, though he could re-sign with the Astros.  Quite frankly, I'm sick of the Clemens "is he going to pitch or not?" stuff.  It's amazing that owners are willing to let the guy sit on the sidelines until May or June, then spend a month or so in the minors before he actually pitches on the team (and makes millions of dollars while doing so.)  Of course, it's also amazing that a guy who's 44 years old can still dominate the league the way he did last year.

But enough of Clemens.  The chances of him pitching for the Astros this year are slim, leaving the 'Stros with a rotation of Roy Oswalt, Jennings, Woody Williams (signed in the offseason), Wandy Rodriguez, and Ezequiel Astacio.  Rodriguez and Astacio were both pretty bad in their time in the majors last year, and Astacio spent most of the year at AAA.  Williams, never dominant but a solid pitcher in his thirties, rebounded from a couple of down years to post a 3.65 ERA and a 12-5 record in San Diego last year.  But he's also 40 years old, and his peripherals last season (72 K and 35 walks in 145.1 innings) don't really suggest that he's going to be able to go much longer, and he's not going to eat a ton of innings.  This may not work out well for the Astros.

Of course, with Certified Innings Eaters Oswalt and Jennings on top of the rotation, the Astros should be fine.  Oswalt has averaged 200 innings a year in his six seasons in the bigs -- and that includes his rookie season of 2001 (when he didn't spend the whole year in the majors) and 2003 (when he was injured.)  Over the past three years he's averaged nearly seven innings per start.  JJ isn't quite the workhorse Oswalt is (but then, few people are), but he also averaged nearly seven innings per start.

Those two would be even more valuable if the back end of the Astros' bullpen reverts to form in 2007.  Brad Lidge, after two very successful seasons as the closer, struggled mightily in 2006, watching his ERA balloon from 2.29 to 5.28.  It all seems to have stemmed from watching Albert Pujols hammer one of his pitches out of the park in the 2005 NLCS; Brad hasn't been the same since then.  It's almost inexplicable, as Lidge's component ratios changed little from 2005 to 2006.  The number of homers he surrendered doubled (from 5 to 10) -- but even that doesn't explain a three-point rise in his ERA.  If Lidge returns to form in 2007, the Astros will have much more hope of making the postseason.

The offense -- and I'm saying this as a Rockies fan -- will actually probably be better without Willy Taveras, whose lack of OBP in the leadoff spot probably hurt the team more than his speed helped.  Chris Burke, who hit .276/.347/.418 in roughly half a season's worth of ABs, will be more than capable as his replacement.  Carlos Lee, lately of Milwaukee and Texas, provides a much-needed dose of power in the outfield, as he's hit better than 30 homers four consecutive years and could easily increase that number to 40 with the short porch in left at Minute Maid.  Jason Lane hit just .201 last season after hitting .267 in '05, his first full year in the bigs.  Progression to the mean suggests that he'll probably hit around .250 with 20 homers -- not great numbers for a right fielder, but the Astros don't seem to have any other good options out there.  Lane is mostly just keeping a spot warm for top prospect Hunter Pence.  Pence hit .283/.357/.533 at AA Corpus Christi last season, and he'll probably start the year at AAA -- but he could be up sooner than later if Lane struggles.

The infield saw a collective slump last season by Craig Biggio, Adam Everett, and Morgan Ensberg.  Biggio, who's now 41, is probably just about done, but he'll play this year in an effort to get to 3000 hits (he needs just 70 more.)  Ensberg saw his average drop from .283 to .235, and hit 13 fewer homers.  I'd be willing to say that his 2005 season was a fluke, except that I thought that about his 2003 season (until he was great in 2005.)  Still, Ensberg, even though he hasn't been in the majors that long, is 31 years old and is more likely to get worse than better.  Everett has never hit much; his glove keeps him in the lineup.  Good thing for Astros fans is that Lance Berkman is still around, and he seemed to be the only Astro not affected by the club's collective slump in 2006 as he batted .315 and knocked 45 homers.

What does 2007 hold for the Astros?  It's hard to imagine that virtually everybody on the team will slump in 2006 the way they did in 2007.  But it's also worth noting that many of the veterans the Astros are counting on (Biggio, Brad Ausmus, Williams) are old and almost done.  Only in the NL Central is this team a contender.

Projected 2007 finish: 2nd, NL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Burke cf
Biggio 2b
Berkman 1b
Ensberg 3b
Lee lf
Lane rf
Everett ss
Ausmus c

Projected Starting Rotation

Roy Oswalt
Jason Jennings
Woody Williams
Wandy Rodriguez (L)
Ezequiel Astacio

The season will be a success if... The Astros play in the postseason, but this team is too limited to expect much beyond that.

Projected 2007 Record: 86-76