Preview #17 of 30: Cleveland Indians

The Indians seem pretty far removed from their run of the 1990s, but don't forget that two years ago the team finished second in the AL Central and was in the playoff race until the final weekend of the season.  From 1995 to 2001, the Indians won six division titles; however, that netted the squad just two World Series appearances and no World Championship.  Still, it's a pretty far cry from the amazing stretch of futility the Tribe endured from 1969 to 1993, when they never finished better than fourth in the AL East.  But the team still hasn't won a World Series since 1948.

Will that change this year?  The pieces are in place, and let's not forget that even last year, when the Tribe slumped to a 78-84 record and fourth place in the Central in a year that showed so much promise, they actually outscored their opponents by 88 runs.  Baseball Reference's Pythagorean record pegs the 2006 Indians as an 89-73 team.  Still, the AL Central is loaded, but the Indians are one of four teams who can legitimately claim they have a shot at winning the division -- and it's not even an outside shot.

DH Travis Hafner is one of the best pure hitters in the game, posting a .308/.439/.659 line last season, while CF Grady Sizemore has the potential to be a 30-30 guy.  For this Indians offense to really hum, though, the team probably needs another power threat to emerge.  It could be Ryan Garko, likely to be the full-time first baseman now that Ben Broussard is out of town.  Garko hit seven homers in 185 AB in the majors last season, after hitting 15 in 364 AB at Buffalo.  Still, he had just a .488 SLG in his minor league career, but that may improve now that he's moved out from behind the plate.  There, the Indians already have Victor Martinez, who has seen a slight drop in power over the past two seasons while improving his BA.  Shortstop Jhonny Peralta and right fielder Casey Blake have decent power, and the Indians added Trot Nixon and David Dellucci in the offseason, but both of those guys are on the wrong side of 30.

There are a few holes in the lineup.  At third, Aaron Boone is gone after a pedestrian year in Cleveland, likely to be replaced by former uber-prospect Andy Marte.  Marte was once one of the top prospects in the game and has been very good in the minors in the past three seasons -- hitting 58 homers -- though he hasn't done much in his admittedly small time in the majors.  The Indians did fill a potential hole at second by wresting Josh Barfield from the Padres.  This has the potential to be one of the best lineups in the majors; Hafner and Sizemore are proven commodities, while Martinez, Peralta, and Blake have shown themselves to at least be solid role players.  Garko, Marte, and Barfield all have potential.  Left field is the only real hole, but with Dellucci, Nixon, and Jason Michaels around, the Indians should be able to find somebody who can fill it decently.

The starting rotation is good, though the Indians may have torpedoed their playoff hopes by signing Jason Johnson before the season and watching him go 3-8 with a 5.96 ERA before dumping him at mid-season.  Jeremy Sowers proved capable, and he's the fifth starter.  C.C. Sabathia is the ace, but since going 17-5 in his rookie year of 2001 he hasn't won more than 15 games.  He always seems to get hurt at some point, though 2006 was the first year that he didn't make 30 or more starts; he's only thrown 200 innings once in his career.  Along with Sowers, the rest of Cleveland's rotation is made up of guys usually characterized as soft-tossers: Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd.  Lee's 129 strikeouts were the most of the four, and it's worth wondering whether or not the Indians can get by with this rotation.  Still, all four of the pitchers who were in the rotation all year won 10 games despite only Sabathia having an ERA under 4; that's a testament to this offense.

The real issue is the bullpen, which had some bloated ERAs last season, and it's no better with Bob Wickman out of town as Joe Borowski is expected to be the team's closer.  This is a real weak spot for Cleveland, and the Tribe could use a good year from its 'pen; that could be the difference between first place and fourth in the Central.

Projected 2007 Finish: 4th, AL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Sizemore cf
Barfield 2b
Martinez c
Hafner dh
Garko 1b
Blake rf
Marte 3b
Dellucci lf
Peralta ss

Projected Starting Rotation

C.C. Sabathia (L)
Jake Westbrook
Cliff Lee (L)
Paul Byrd
Jeremy Sowers (L)

The season will be a success if... The Tribe makes it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2001.  But the team will need more contributions from the bullpen for that to happen.

Projected 2007 record: 83-79