Preview #18 of 30: Cincinnati Reds

Yes, I realize that there are rumors that Todd Helton is about to be shipped out of town, probably to Boston.  I'll save my commentary on this for after a deal goes down, if in fact it does.  We've had rumors about a Helton trade before, but this one seems to have legs.  Now back to our scheduled team preview...

The Reds were in contention for a long time last season, and wound up just three games out in the NL Central.  Of course, they might have won it if they hadn't traded away Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns for bullpen help.  Yeah, the team needed bullpen help, but Lopez and Kearns were a heavy price to pay, and the guys they got in return weren't all that good.

The Reds have a strong outfield, at least from an offensive standpoint.  (Defense is a different story.)  Adam Dunn is one of the best pure power hitters in all of baseball, and Ken Griffey Jr. hit 27 homers despite missing a third of the season with injuries.  It's kind of hard to believe that Junior is 37 years old now.  He has been around forever, and doesn't seem like he's slowing down, as he's productive when he's healthy.  Problem is, he hasn't been healthy in a long time... 2000 was the last time he had 500 at bats in a season.  2000.  That's six straight years that Junior has missed time due to injury.

Enough about Junior, though.  He's a sure-fire Hall of Famer, but he's no longer the face of the Reds.  That would be Dunn, the 27-year-old slugger who's knocked 40 homers each of the past three seasons.  He doesn't hit for much average (.234 last season), but he walks so much that he gets a decent OBP.  Amazingly, over half of his plate appearances ended with a strikeout, a walk, or a home run; Dunn does a lot of all three.  Ryan Freel, a speedster, will probably get the nod in right field, though Rule 5 pick Josh Hamilton -- a former #1 overall pick of the Devil Rays -- may find his way into some playing time.  You never know.

On the infield, Edwin Encarnacion, at 23, had a fine rookie season, while 25-year-old Brandon Phillips was also pretty good.  Both hit more homers than first baseman Scott Hatteberg, who continues to have a major league job despite being 37, limited defensively to first base and incapable of the kind of offense you'd like from your first baseman.  Adding further insult is Alex Gonzalez at short, he of the career .292 OBP.  I'm just assuming he's good defensively.  You don't get a starting job in the big leagues with that kind of hitting unless you're a great fielder (or Clint Barmes.)

The pitching staff was surprisingly not that bad in 2006, getting good seasons from Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang.  Things taper off after that, though.  Eric Milton continues to make the Reds look dumb for signing him to a huge deal, Kyle Lohse is still Kyle Lohse (4.57 ERA for the Reds in the latter half of '06 notwithstanding), and Kirk Saarloos?  One of these guys, really, is just holding down a spot for Homer Bailey, though we're not sure which one.  The bullpen is no better.  Todd Coffey or David Weathers will be the closer; both were okay in 2006 but nothing great.

This doesn't look like a contender, but then I thought the same about the Reds heading into last year.  You've got a somewhat dangerous lineup (as long as Griffey is healthy) and a couple of good starting pitchers, but not much else.  With the Cubs and Brewers likely to be improved, I'm thinking fifth place here.

Projected 2007 finish: 5th, NL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Freel rf
Phillips 2b
Griffey cf
Dunn lf
Encarnacion 3b
Hatteberg 1b
Ross c
Gonzalez ss

Projected Starting Rotation

Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Eric Milton (L)
Kyle Lohse
Kirk Saarloos

The season will be a success if... I don't know, Homer Bailey's arm doesn't fall off?

Projected 2007 record: 74-88