Preview #20 of 30: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers took a step back last season, after finishing at .500 in 2005 for the first time in thirteen years.  That's not to say that the team is going to go back to the days when they perennially finished dead last in the NL Central.  The Pirates are too bad for that to happen.  But it's a bit of a disappointment, especially considering that the Central was there for the taking (after all, the World Champion Cardinals won the division with just 83 wins.)

So what happened?  Three pitchers who showed promise in 2005 -- Chris Capuano, Doug Davis, and Derrick Turnbow -- flopped.  Capuano and Davis weren't all that bad, though Capuano was a far cry from the 18-game winner he was in 2005 and Davis had an ERA near 5 and wound up getting shipped to Arizona.  Turnbow was awful, seeing his ERA balloon from under 2 to 6.87 and blowing a ton of saves.  Injuries to Ben Sheets meant that a bunch of pitchers who weren't ready had to make starts, often with predictably awful results.  Leadoff man Brady Clark came down after a solid 2005.  Corey Koskie, brought in to man third base, was hurt much of the season.

Of course, two prospects who did come in and contribute were Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks.  Any discussion of the Brewers' future begins and ends with these two.  Fielder, at 22, knocked 28 homers and had a .483 SLG; it's hard to see how he won't get better in the future.  Weeks, though, was hurt much of the season.  Injuries explain a lot of the Brewers' problems last year.

If they can stay healthy, the Brew Crew should have a pretty good team, though it may not show up in the standings with the Cardinals and Astros still being pretty good and the Cubs throwing around gobs of money.  Koskie has been a solid guy in the past, and J.J. Hardy still has potential, though he hasn't hit much in two seasons in the majors.  Bill Hall and his home run bat (35 in 2006 -- where did that come from?) will play somewhere, probably in left.  Clark, though, probably isn't as good as he showed in 2005 and Geoff Jenkins is on the downside of his career.  Johnny Estrada should be the starting catcher here.

The Brewers traded Davis, but got Jeff Suppan, whose deal is pretty expensive but reasonable considering what pitchers were getting this offseason.  Sheets, Capuano, and Suppan should be a solid front three, especially if Sheets is healthy all season.  Claudio Vargas is effective, and Dave Bush was pretty good last season.  If anybody is hurt or ineffective, the Brewers will have some young arms stashed at AAA -- though some aren't ready and others are probably better suited for relief.

In short, the Brewers are probably closer to what they showed in 2005 than last season.  If everybody's healthy, this team should finish fourth or better in the Central.  The Cardinals and Astros, though good, aren't overwhelming.

Projected 2007 Finish: 4th NL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

Clark cf
Weeks 2b
Hall lf
Fielder 1b
Koskie 3b
Jenkins rf
Estrada c
Hardy ss

Projected Starting Rotation

Ben Sheets
Chris Capuano (L)
Jeff Suppan
Claudio Vargas
David Bush

Projected 2007 Record: 80-82