Preview #2 of 30: Chicago Cubs

I'm going in no particular order here.  So today's preview, #2 in Coors Effect's 30-part series, will be the Chicago Cubs.

It's been since 1908 that the Cubs have won the World Series -- and 1944 since they've even made it there.  The Cubs made it to the NLCS in 2003, Dusty Baker's first season in Chicago, but didn't make it back to the playoffs in the past three years and Baker was fired after 2006, a season in which the Cubs went 66-96, finishing in last place in the NL Central.

The Cubs have been the exception to the rule that large-market teams win in baseball.  They play in Chicago, the third-largest city in the United States, and they sell out virtually every game at old Wrigley Field despite having to share the market with the White Sox across town.  Even in an awful 2006 season the Cubs averaged 38,558 fans per game -- better than all but the Dodgers, Cardinals (who had a new ballpark), Mets, and Giants in the National League.  Yet the Cubs have finished dead last in the NL Central five times since the advent of the wild card era (counting strike-shortened 1994.)

The Cubs' farm system is an example of what can go wrong with relying on the farm system.  There's been plenty of talent down on the farm, but many of their top pitchers, including Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, have had numerous injury problems over the years.  The lack of success with the farm system has frustrated Cubs fans, and in response they've decided to go the opposite route for 2007: signing a bunch of big-name free agents to contracts.  Alfonso Soriano signed for $136 million over 8 years.  The Cubs also brought in pitchers Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis.  The Marquis signing, at $21 million over three years, is especially mind-boggling since Marquis posted a 6.02 ERA for the Cardinals in 2006.  There are probably guys the Cubs have at AAA who could come in and do that.

None of those free agents, though, will help the team as much in 2007 as having a healthy Derrek Lee will.  D-Lee was healthy in 2005 and posted MVP-type numbers: .335, 46 homers, 107 RBI.  In 2006, he missed two thirds of the season and hit just .286 with 8 homers and 30 RBI.  If Lee is healthy, the heart of the Cubs' order, with him, Soriano (.277, 46 homers, 95 RBI playing in pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium) and Aramis Ramirez (.291, 38 homers, 119 RBI) will be as dangerous as any in baseball.  Throw in Jacque Jones (.285, 27 homers, 81 RBI), and the Cubs lineup should thrive if Lee plays a full season.  The rest of the lineup isn't bad: young Matt Murton is a good hitter for average; Mark DeRosa is a decent hitter at second; and Michael Barrett is a good hitter as catchers go.  The Cubs should be able to carry Ronny Cedeno, who hit just .245 in his first full season in the bigs.  Cesar Izturis, Ryan Theriot, and Buck Coats should provide some depth, and top prospect Felix Pie (.283/.341/.451 at AAA Iowa), who's just 21, could force his way into the mix with a good spring.  The Cubs lineup could be very good.

The pitching, though, is a different story.  Staff ace Carlos Zambrano is as good as any starter in the game, but after him the rotation is filled with mediocre veterans (Lilly, Marquis), injury question marks (Prior and Wood), and unproven youngsters (Sean Marshall, Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol.)  A healthy season from Prior or Wood will go a long way toward making the team better, but that may be asking a lot.  Of the youngsters, Hill, who went 6-7 with a 4.17 ERA in 17 games in 2006, is probably the best bet.  Marshall, who surprised everybody by making the rotation out of spring training, went 6-9 with a 5.59 ERA and may need more time in the minors, but he's only 24.  Marmol, also 24, went 5-7 with a 6.08 ERA and probably will start the season at AAA.  The rotation will likely be boom or bust: either the Cubs get production out of the youngsters (or a healthy Prior/Wood) and do well, or everybody gets hurt, the youngsters can't do it, and Marquis is as bad as he was in 2006.

Cubs Projected Opening Day Lineup

Soriano cf
DeRosa 2b
Lee 1b
Ramirez 3b
Jones rf
Barrett c
Murton lf
Cedeno ss

Projected Starting Rotation

Carlos Zambrano
Mark Prior
Ted Lilly (L)
Jason Marquis
Rich Hill (L)

Projected Finish: 3rd, NL Central

The season will be a success if... The Cubs have a winning record.  There's enough talent on this team to win the division, but there are enough question marks that the Cubs could also flame out and finish in the cellar again.  A healthy and productive season from Derrek Lee (and the fact that the Pirates are still bad) should be enough to ensure that the team doesn't finish last again, but the pitching staff is such a big question mark that it's difficult to expect better than a third-place finish.

Projected 2007 record: 80-82