Preview #4 of 30: Florida Marlins

Considering the team he had, the fact that Joe Girardi was able to go 78-84 in his first season in south Florida was amazing.  Yet, disagreements with owner Jeffrey Loria led to Girardi being fired and replaced by Fredi Gonzalez.

Back in 1998, the first time the Marlins held a "fire sale" and dismantled the team, the team suffered to the worst record in baseball the following season.  In 2006, however, the Marlins threatened to make a playoff push late in the season and finished a respectable fourth place in the NL East.  Three more wins, and the Fish would have had a .500 record for the season.  Amazing for a team that many people thought was going to threaten the major league record for losses in a season.

The key to this team last year was that even though the players were young, and many had never played in the majors before, they were also talented.  If the 2005 Rockies were the test version, the 2006 Marlins were taken to the extreme: scrapping aging veterans for young, talented players from other organizations, to the point that every Marlins regular last season was under 30.  With the team remaining quiet in the free agent market, that will be the case again this season.

Entering his fourth season in the majors, and at just 23 years of age, Miguel Cabrera is a veteran by Marlins standards, and he's the key to the offense.  After moving to the outfield when he came up, Cabrera moved back to third base in 2006 and quietly had an excellent season, batting .339 (second in the National League) and hitting 26 homers to go with 114 RBI.  He led the team in batting average and RBI -- but not homers, as surprising Rule 5 second baseman Dan Uggla knocked 27.  NL Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez (.292-17-59) and first baseman Mike Jacobs (.262-20-77) complete what, surprisingly, is one of the best (and youngest) infields in the National League.

Left fielder Josh Willingham, at 27, finally got his chance in the bigs last season and responded by hitting 26 homers.  In right, Jeremy Hermida (22) was a bit of a disappointment, missing almost half the season due to injury and hitting just .251 with five homers, but he also has a ton of talent.  Center field could be a sore spot, however.  Right now, Alfredo Amezaga is penciled in as the starter, which tells you about all you need to know.  Reggie Abercrombie, Cody Ross, and Eric Reed will also be in the mix in center.

Dontrelle Willis seems to excel in odd-numbered years -- he came up in 2003 and went 14-6, then went 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA in 2005 -- so 2007 should be a good year for the D-Train.  As with the hitters, youth is the story here.  The Marlins will go with a trio of 23-year-olds -- big righty Josh Johnson, lefty Scott Olsen, and Anibal Sanchez, who tossed a no-hitter in September -- in their rotation, as well as another youngster, perhaps Ricky Nolasco, who started 22 games in 2006, in their rotation.  The bullpen is unproven but could be a strength.

The biggest question is, are the youngsters really as good as they showed in 2006?  Four of the five starting pitchers, and five everyday players, were rookies in 2006, and it seemed that just about every one of them was good.  If everybody on the team collectively has a sophomore slump, the Marlins will be very, very bad.  On the other hand, with a good season from Willis and continued improvement from the youngsters, the Marlins could be quite good.  My best guess is that they'll finish somewhere in the middle.

Projected 2007 Starting Lineup

Ramirez ss
Uggla 2b
Cabrera 3b
Willingham lf
Jacobs 1b
Hermida rf
Amezaga cf
Olivo c

Projected 2007 Starting Rotation

Dontrelle Willis (L)
Josh Johnson
Scott Olsen (L)
Anibal Sanchez
Ricky Nolasco

Projected Finish: 4th, NL East

The season will be a success if... the team improves from 2006.  If the entire team collectively slumps, this will be a long season.  The youngsters need to show improvement from year one to year two.  How will Joe Girardi's departure affect the team?

Projected Record: 79-83