Preview #5 of 30: Baltimore Orioles

The dead of the offseason, while a fun time to look ahead to the coming season, is also a good time to: catch up on sleep, watch college basketball, watch the NFL playoffs, deal with the first week of the second semester of law school.  That's why Coors Effect hasn't had one of its "daily previews" for the last eight days.  Real life (and, on occasion, other sports) gets in the way of thinking about baseball sometimes.  Anyways, even with that eight-day layoff, the preview series should still be done on February 6.  That leaves nine days before pitchers and catchers report (for the Rockies, anyway.)

This being a Rockies blog, I'll also be posting whatever news comes out of Rockies camp, including trades -- one of which will follow this post later tonight.  If you're wondering, the general order of the previews will be alternating AL and NL teams, starting with the two East divisions, followed by the remaining teams from the two Central divisions, and finally the West.  Since there are two more NL teams than AL, we'll have two NL teams at the end: the Cardinals (out of order, sure, but I follow the Cardinals when I'm not, well, following the Rockies) and our Rockies last.

That brings us to tonight's preview of our recent trade partners, the Baltimore Orioles.  It must be frustrating to be an O's fan.  Since winning the AL East in 1997, Baltimore hasn't had a winning season, and has only finished better than fourth once (2004.)  The franchise is in pretty awful shape.  The farm hasn't produced much talent, and the free agents the team has signed, aside from Miguel Tejada, have mostly been mediocre.  That, coupled with playing in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, means the Orioles are losers.  And there's less hope here than even in Tampa Bay, where a crop of youngsters provides hope for the future.

Still, this Orioles team doesn't have the look of some O's clubs of recent vintage, which tended to be stocked with over-the-hill veterans who used to be good, but were well past their prime.  There's really only one player on the offense who fits that description, 35-year-old Kevin Millar.  The rest of the offense, while not particularly old, isn't particularly good, either.  Of course, Tejada is good, and Nick Markakis, who's just 23, has a ton of potential.  O's fans are still waiting on Corey Patterson to live up to his, after the Cubs got sick of waiting for that.  Most likely, Jay Gibbons or Jay Payton will man left field; neither is a bad option, but neither is going to be great, either.

Outside of Tejada, the infield is okay; Melvin Mora has been a pretty good hitter, as has Brian Roberts.  Kevin Millar isn't the player he used to be, and Ramon Hernandez is serviceable behind the plate, but he's nothing special.  For a team that plays in a pretty hitter-friendly park, it's saying a lot that the team's home run leader last season (Tejada) had just 24 homers.  That pretty well sums up the O's offense: decent, but nothing special, and certainly not enough to keep up with the Yankees and Red Sox (or even the Blue Jays.)

The pitching, once again, is decent, but not spectacular.  Erik Bedard is a good young starter, and Daniel Cabrera can be completely overpowering -- but often he can't find the plate at all.  Kris Benson, of course, is a guy who's never lived up to his potential, but he's okay as a #3/#4 starter, as is Jaret Wright.  That leaves either Adam Loewen or Hayden Penn -- both just 22 -- to fill the last slot in the rotation.  Chris Ray had a solid year in his debut as the O's closer.

The pitching will be hit-or-miss.  Good seasons from Bedard, Cabrera, and one of the young guys could mean the O's will be better than expected; on the other hand, you basically know what you're getting with Benson and Wright.  Likewise, you know what you're getting with virtually everybody on the offense except Markakis.

The farm system, other than the aforementioned guys, is average as well.  There are a couple of potential impact guys, and some decent pitching depth, but not a lot of potential impact hitters -- which is what this team needs.  The O's should be good enough to avoid the cellar as Tampa Bay breaks in its young talent, but don't expect a lot more from this team.

Projected Starting Lineup

Roberts 2b
Mora 3b
Tejada ss
Millar 1b
Patterson cf
Huff dh
Markakis rf
Payton lf
Hernandez c

Projected Starting Rotation

Erik Bedard (L)
Daniel Cabrera
Kris Benson
Jaret Wright
Adam Loewen (L)

Projected 2007 finish: 4th, AL East

The season will be a success if... The Orioles are at least respectable.  Without a lot of help on the way, at least not in the high minors, the O's aren't even in a great position to get younger.  It would help if one of the veteran starters -- say, Kris Benson -- were traded to make a spot in the rotation for Penn, and that could happen if the O's are out of contention.

Projected 2007 record: 73-89