Preview #6 of 30: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have seemingly been on the brink of something great for a while now, but it hasn't happened.  The team hasn't made the playoffs since 1993 -- when the team won the old NL East and advanced to the World Series, where they lost to Toronto.  Part of this can be blamed on the post-1993 realignment; playing in the same division as the Braves when they were winning all those division titles didn't help.  On the flipside, there have been some poor management decisions, and the farm system hasn't really produced a lot of players of note, at least not until the past couple of years.

That's changing, as the Phils have homegrown perhaps the best right side of the infield in baseball, with reigning NL MVP Ryan Howard at first and budding star Chase Utley at second.  Those two combined to hit 90 homers and drive in 251 runs in 2006, and both are still in their twenties.  They form the heart of the Phillies' lineup, along with left fielder Pat Burrell, who seems like he's been around forever but is just 30 years old.  Burrell knocked 29 homers in 2006, but only batted .258.  Surprising power from shortstop Jimmy Rollins -- who hit 25 homers in 2006 despite being just 5'8" -- helps to make the Phillies lineup quite dangerous.

The rest of the lineup isn't quite as good, though Rod Barajas has shown some home run power and Aaron Rowand is a decent hitter in center.  Wes Helms is a decent fill-in at third, and Shane Victorino is unproven in right.  Some contributions from these four would make for a solid batting order, perhaps as good as any in the division except the Mets.  Jayson Werth is a good fourth outfielder to have around.

The pitching is solid.  Brett Myers, at 25, had a good year in 2006, while 22-year-old Cole Hamels made a splash in his debut -- he struck out 145 batters in 132.1 innings.  On the opposite end of the age spectrum, 44-year-old Jamie Moyer went 5-2 for the Phils after a late-season trade.  An offseason trade netted Freddy Garcia, giving the Phils what could be a strong rotation.  Adam Eaton isn't that great, but there are certainly worse guys the Phillies could have at the back of the rotation.  Jon Lieber is still around and could compete for the role as well.  After Gavin Floyd was traded in the offseason, there isn't any younger competition for the fifth spot.  Closer Tom Gordon will be 39 on Opening Day but still had a pretty good year in '06 and can be expected to do the same in 2007.  Ryan Madson, who was an unmitigated disaster as a starter, should be back in the bullpen as well.

The farm system has been drained a bit by trades and graduation to the majors, so Phillies fans probably shouldn't expect any youngsters to make a splash like Hamels did in 2006.  All in all, though, the Phillies have the makings of what could be a very good team in 2007 and should contend for the wild card at worst.

Projected 2007 finish: 2nd, NL East; NL Wild Card

Projected Starting Lineup

Rollins ss
Rowand cf
Howard 1b
Utley 2b
Burrell lf
Helms 3b
Victorino rf
Barajas c

Projected Starting Rotation

Brett Myers
Freddy Garcia
Cole Hamels (L)
Jamie Moyer (L)
Adam Eaton

The season will be a success if... The Phillies make the playoffs -- either by winning the East or the Wild Card -- for the first time since 1993.

Projected 2007 record: 89-73