Preview #7 of 30: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

So when do the Rays turn the corner?

Since their inception in 1998, the Devil Rays have finished last eight times in nine seasons (and in the one year they didn't finish last, they finished fourth.)  Their franchise wins record?  70 games.  2006 marked the third time in franchise history that the team finished with 100 or more losses.  2006 also marked the third time in franchise history that the team had the worst record in the majors.

However, there is hope for the future.  The Devil Rays' farm system has been absolutely loaded for the past couple of years, bolstered by both high draft picks and trading away veterans.  Most baseball insiders agree that if Tampa Bay doesn't have the best farm system in the majors, it's certainly in the top three.  Already some talented players from the farm system have made their way up to the majors: Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, Jorge Cantu, Scott Kazmir.  Now, more are on their way.  The franchise will have trouble finding places to play for all of these talented young players.

Still, to this point, the farm system hasn't produced much in the way of pitching, other than Kazmir, who went 10-8 with a 3.24 ERA in 2006, striking out 163 batters in 144.2 innings -- and that was at age 22.  Kazmir fronts what's otherwise a pretty bad starting rotation.  Casey Fossum, a junkballer who would either be a #5 starter or a quad-A guy for most teams, is penciled in as the #2 starter.  James Shields, Tim Corcoran, and Jae Seo will likely be the other three starters.  Of course, there are a bunch of other guys in the mix, many of whom are young guys who other organizations gave up on (Edwin Jackson, Marcos Carvajal.)  There are also a few nice prospects on the mound who may or may not be ready to contribute -- but when two starters here had ERAs over 5 last year, it's not like you have to be THAT good.

Hitting, on the other hand, is a different story, as the Rays have a ton of prospects and have the nice problem of needing to find places for all of them to play.  Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford, veterans by Devil Rays standards, are both just 25.  They'll likely start in center and left, respectively, assuming Baldelli is healthy.  Likely joining them in the outfield will be Delmon Young, who's just 21 and is widely regarded as the best prospect in baseball.  Of course, that doesn't even account for Elijah Dukes, another top prospect who looks ready to contribute -- so don't be surprised if somebody gets traded.  In the infield, Jorge Cantu looked like a budding star when he hit 28 homers in 2005, but in 2006 he slumped to 14 -- while hitting just .249.  Designated hitter Jonny Gomes, likewise, saw his average drop, hitting just .216.  Cantu is expected to move to first base after playing second, due largely to his defense (or lack thereof.)  His possible replacement at second is Japanese import Aki Iwamura, but the Rays also have Brendan Harris hanging around, and B.J. Upton needs a place to play as well (he's another top prospect.)  Upton could play at third, with Ben Zobrist at short, and Dioner Navarro behind the plate.

It can't be understated just how young this Devil Rays team is.  Gomes, at 26, may be the oldest player in the Devil Rays' starting lineup on Opening Day.  Everybody else will be 25 or younger; Kazmir, Navarro, Upton, Dukes, and Young will all be 23 or younger.  The obvious question, aside from finding places for everybody to play, is how long it will take the Rays to field a competitive team.  They're going to need some pitching for that to happen, but the lineup has the potential to be one of the best in baseball -- a couple of years from now.

Projected 2007 Finish: 5th, AL East

Projected Starting Lineup

Crawford lf
Baldelli cf
Cantu 1b
Gomes dh
Young rf
Upton 3b
Iwamura 2b
Navarro c
Zobrist ss

Projected Starting Rotation

Scott Kazmir (L)
Casey Fossum (L)
James Shields
Tim Corcoran
Jae Seo

The season will be a success if... The Rays avoid the cellar for only the second time in history, and the young guys show that they're not all just hype.

Projected 2007 record: 67-95