Preview #8 of 30: Atlanta Braves

It had to end sometime, didn't it?

For the first time since 1990, the Braves weren't division champs.  Oh, there was the strike-shortened season of 1994, in which the Braves technically were second in the NL East when play stopped... but for all intents and purposes, the Braves had won fourteen straight division titles.  Finally, in 2006, the team slumped to a 79-83 finish, good for third in the NL East, but just one game ahead of the Marlins, who were supposed to be awful.

Certainly, luck played a part -- despite their 79-83 record, the Braves actually outscored their opponents by 44 runs.  Considering that they finished 18 games behind the Mets in the standings, you can't blame the lack of a division title on luck, but the Braves were actually better than their record showed.

And don't blame youth, either.  While the team was pretty young, the youngsters actually were pretty good.  The established veterans, on the other hand, struggled, and were primarily responsible for the Braves' demise.  Still, the pieces are in place for the Braves to contend for yet another division title in 2007.  It all starts with the pitching staff.

The pitching staff was the problem in 2006, and to address the bullpen -- a major factor in the Braves' 2006 struggles -- the team today traded Adam LaRoche to the Pirates for Mike Gonzalez.  (Adam, I'm sorry.)  This season, the bullpen could be one of the team's strengths after being a major question mark last season.  Most of those who were responsible for the pen's meltdown in 2006 are out of town or, at the very least, won't play prominent roles for the Braves this season.  Bob Wickman was dynamite down the stretch as closer, but he'll be 38 next month, so Gonzalez seems a more likely choice to start the year as closer.  Macay McBride, Chad Paronto, Tyler Yates, and Oscar Villarreal were fine in 2006; assuming they don't have a collective breakdown, the bridge to the back end will be good.  And the Braves supplemented the 'pen even further in the offseason by adding Rafael Soriano in the offseason.

The Braves need Tim Hudson to return to form, as there are a lot of question marks in the rotation.  Question #1: Can John Smoltz, who turns 40 during the season, continue to be the ace?  My guess is yes.  Question #2: Is Chuck James for real?  James went 11-4 with a fine 3.78 ERA in 18 starts last season.  If Hudson returns to form, Smoltz's arm doesn't fall off, and James shows that 2006 wasn't a fluke, the top three will be fine.  After that... there's Kyle Davies, who pitched so poorly (like, 3-7, 8.38 ERA) and wound up getting hurt.  And, apparently, the Braves are counting on a contribution from Mike Hampton, which, as Rockies fans know very well, is not a very good idea.  Surely the Braves have somebody on the farm who can beat out Hampton for the final spot in the rotation.  And Davies isn't exactly the solution at #4, but then again, he's just 23 and 2006 may not be indicative of his real abilities.

The offense should be fine, though moving LaRoche inserts a needless question mark into things a month before spring training.  There are so many different options in the infield, though Edgar Renteria, who's now back to being a fine shortstop since he's back in the NL, will start.  Chipper Jones will, too, though it's unclear where.  Do the Braves keep him at third and play Scott Thorman at first?  Or do they move Chipper to first to create a spot for Willy Aybar?  There's also Martin Prado, and utilityman Pete Orr.  But it's probably not the best idea to move a guy who just hit 32 homers this soon before the season.  Thorman has the potential to match that, but he also had a .263 OBP in admittedly limited action last season.

On the other hand, there's no question at catcher, where Brian McCann is one of the best catchers in the game, period (let's stop throwing the "young" qualifier in there.)  At 22, he's coming off a season in which he posted a .333/.388/.572 line.  Few catchers come close to that, and he's also fine defensively.

Andruw Jones, who seems like he's been around forever but is just 29, will patrol center and can be reasonably expected to post yet another fine season at the plate.  His average slipped to .262 last season but he also belted 41 homers.  Jeff Francoeur also has a ton of power but is inhibited by his inability (or unwillingness) to draw a walk.  Still, he'll be just 23 on Opening Day.  The weak link in the outfield is Ryan Langerhans, who hit a weak .241 while spiltting time with Matt Diaz in left.  Expect a similar situation this season unless either of the two asserts enough production to play full-time.

Considering the strength of the Mets and even the Phillies, there are just too many question marks on this Braves team to expect a division title.  But if everything falls into place, the Braves could make a run at the playoffs.

Projected 2007 finish: 3rd, NL East

Projected Starting Lineup

Aybar 2b
Renteria ss
C. Jones 3b
A. Jones cf
Francoeur rf
McCann c
Thorman 1b
Langerhans/Diaz lf

Projected Starting Rotation

John Smoltz
Tim Hudson
Chuck James (L)
Kyle Davies
Mike Bleeping Hampton (no arm)

The season will be a success if... The Braves win the division, though that's a bit unreasonable.

Projected 2007 record: 85-77