Preview #9 of 30: Boston Red Sox

Few teams in baseball are as difficult to get a read on heading into the season as the Boston Red Sox.

The hitting?  There's Manny and Papi.  After that... well, J.D. Drew is great when he's healthy, and he's actually been healthy the last couple of years.  Those three give the Sox as dangerous a middle of the lineup as any team in baseball (that includes you, Yankees.)  Of course, that's assuming Drew is healthy enough to play a full season.  Kevin Youkilis posts a great OBP, but he doesn't give you the kind of power you want from a first baseman.  Since the Sox play in the AL, though, they can get by with him at first, unlike a NL team (which would probably have to deal with Ortiz playing in the field.)  Mike Lowell rebounded nicely in 2006, but at this point in his career he's only a modest power threat.  Jason Varitek, the unquestioned leader of the team, hit just .238 in 2006, turns 35 in April, and should be pushed by prospect George Kottaras.  That doesn't even account for the hole the Sox have in the lineup every fifth day when Doug Mirabelli (.193/.261/.342) has to catch for Tim Wakefield.  Julio Lugo is a decent MLB shortstop and is at least an improvement over Alex Gonzalez, but don't expect him to be Nomar.  Coco Crisp is solid but not spectacular in center, and Dustin Pedroia is unproven at second.  3 to 5, the Sox may be the best in baseball, but 1 to 9, they're nothing close to the Yankees.  I'm not even sure they're as good as the Blue Jays in that regard.

Curt Schilling continues to defy age -- he's now 40 years old, but he's coming off a season when he went 15-7 with a 3.97 ERA.  After that, the rotation is pretty shaky.  Josh Beckett somehow won sixteen games despite a 5.01 ERA.  Despite his reputation, that performance isn't terribly out of line with his career to date -- certainly, it's not as good as usual, but he's not quite as good as some would have you believe.  Daisuke Matsuzaka evidently knows about 17 pitches (I'm exaggerating.)  All indications are that he'll be at least a fine #3 for the Sox.  Jonathan Papelbon should be as good a starter as he was as a closer.  Good move?  Depends on whether you value a reliable #4 or a reliable closer, which the Sox no longer have (Mike Timlin?)  The bullpen will be very shaky.

There's not enough here to expect a division title, but a second-place finish and a wild card are not out of the question.

Projected 2007 Finish: 2nd, AL East; AL Wild Card

Projected Starting Lineup

Youkilis 1b
Crisp cf
Ortiz dh
Ramirez lf
Drew rf
Lowell 3b
Lugo ss
Varitek c
Pedroia 2b

Projected Starting Rotation

Curt Schilling
Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jonathan Papelbon
Tim Wakefield

The season will be a success if... The Sox return to the playoffs.  However, there's not really enough here to contend for a World Series.

Projected 2007 record: 90-72