Rockies trade for Rodrigo Lopez

You know, I think the title says about everything you need to know.  The Rockies traded for Rodrigo Lopez.  Blah.

Normally, I would have about zero excitement about picking up a starter who's coming off a season when he led the majors in losses and had an ERA of 5.90.  Except, oddly enough, Rodrigo isn't all that bad.  Despite being admittedly very bad in 2006, Rodrigo had the best K rate of his career.  In fact, despite being up-and-down during his five seasons in the majors, his peripherals have been very steady.  The difference between the good years and bad years is BABIP -- batting average on balls in play or, put more simply, blind luck.

I'm not that familiar with the concept of BABIP, but I do know that the league average is somewhere around .290, and most pitchers will generally hover around that range.  A pitcher with bad luck, like Rodrigo Lopez had in 2006, will post a BABIP of .334.  A pitcher with great luck -- like, say, Rodrigo Lopez in 2002 -- will post a BABIP of .259.  When his luck was average (2005) he had a BABIP of .294, and he had a decent year: 15-12, 4.90 ERA.  It didn't help that Baltimore is a rather hitter-friendly park and the O's have been known for having a shoddy defense in recent years.  While moving to Coors won't help, the Rockies' defense isn't bad and should help him.

The downside to this trade?  Well, the two players we gave up -- Jim Miller and Jason Burch -- were a pair of AA relievers who few people were high on.  Yes, it was more than the case of Coors Light suggested over at Purple Row, but it's also not a lot to give up for a guy who has been a decent starter in his career and, with a healthy dose of luck, can be good.  No, the downside, other than the obvious risk that Rodrigo will be as horrible as he was in 2006, is that this move pushes one of our young guys to AAA or the bullpen.  If this move winds up pushing Josh Fogg out of the rotation, fine, but if it means Jason Hirsh goes to AAA... I don't like it.  This also increases the likelihood that Taylor Buchholz will be moved to the bullpen or traded.  I don't see how a rotation of Cook, Francis, Lopez, Kim, and Fogg is significantly better than a rotation of Cook, Francis, Kim, Hirsh, and Buchholz or Jimenez.  In fact, either of the last two could do as well as Rodrigo did in '06 (9-18, 5.90 ERA) and wouldn't be the second-highest-paid player on the team while doing it.  Instead, this has all the makings of a "safe" rotation: probably not going to embarrass you, but probably not going to be that great, either.

Thumbs down for screwing over Buchholz.  But, like I said, if Rodrigo's as good as he was in 2004, this could work out well.